New Tunneling Study Shows Bullet Train Route Through Grapevine Poses Greater Earthquake Hazard, Costs More

Palmdale, L.A. Support Antelope Valley Route

LOS ANGELES, April 13 -- Citing an engineering study released today and other data Palmdale Mayor James C. Ledford Jr. testified at a hearing here today that routing a proposed bullet train through the Antelope Valley would be safer from earthquake hazards and far better serve Southern California's transportation needs than an alternative route also being considered by the California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA).

"The Antelope Valley Route is cheaper, faster (to construct) and safer to build," Ledford told Authority members at a hearing on the project's Draft Environmental Impact Report (DEIR). "The right route choice is critical for California to meet statewide and regional transportation and air quality needs, to generate jobs and promote economic growth in a fiscally and socially responsible way."

The CHSRA has proposed a high-speed train that would whisk passengers from the Bay Area to Los Angeles in about 2.5 hours. The project would cost an estimated $35 billion and be the most expensive public works project in U.S. history. Present plans call for Bakersfield to be the last Central Valley station before Southern California. The train then would either follow a route through the Antelope Valley, with a stops in Palmdale and Sylmar, or down the Grapevine Route along the I-5 Freeway and stop in Sylmar before proceeding to Union Station downtown. The Palmdale to Union Station trip would take about 26 minutes.

Study Cites Poor Tunneling Conditions and Earthquake Risk on Grapevine (I-5) Route

An analysis conducted for Palmdale by GEODATA, an Italian engineering firm specializing in tunneling, found that the Antelope Valley Route would involve safer and less extensive tunneling, lower total construction costs with less risk of cost overrun and costly delay, and significantly lower risk of catastrophic accidents affecting rail passengers and crews after service has commenced, according to testimony by Robert Schaevitz, a consultant who participated in the tunneling study. The Grapevine Route would run within a mile of the San Gabriel earthquake fault for over 20 miles, greatly increasing tunneling costs and the likelihood of construction accidents and delay. Because earthquake hazards are significantly lower on the Antelope Valley Route, construction time is expected to be half that of the Grapevine Route, and construction costs (including non-tunnel portions of the routes) could be as much as 60 percent ($775 million) less.

"The I-5 route is truly an accident waiting to happen," said Schaevitz, adding that the Grapevine route would tunnel right through the San Gabriel fault at several locations. "Given how often earthquakes occur in this region, it is difficult to comprehend why the Authority would even consider this route."

Experts Testify that AV Route Serves More Residents and Businesses

Although the Antelope Valley Route would add six to nine minutes to the Bay Area-Los Angeles trip, it would serve 750,000 more residents and 260,000 more employees than the virtually unpopulated Grapevine route, and generate greater ridership revenues, resulting in $900 million in net benefits over the first 33 years of operation.

"More riders will use it if it goes where the people are," Ledford told CHSRA members. "More riders mean higher revenue, which is better for California taxpayers. Serving more people and generating more revenue are benefits well worth a few extra minutes of travel time." Ledford added that a Palmdale stop would connect Southland and San Joaquin Valley residents and businesses to the Palmdale Airport, which is expected to become a major southland airport that would relieve congestion at Los Angeles International and other airports in the region.

AV Route to Reduce Congestion on Southland Freeways and Airports

Ledford noted that in addition to linking the area's airports, the Antelope Valley Route would benefit the entire Southern California region by relieving congestion on the I-5 and SR 14 Freeways. "If we are to get cars off the road, we have to go where the people go," Ledford said. A study conducted for the Southern California Association of Governments projected that high-speed train service between Palmdale and downtown would reach 96,000 to 122,000 daily trips, the majority of which would occur during peak commuter hours.

In addition to Palmdale and Lancaster, the Antelope Valley Route is supported by a wide range of elected officials and public agencies, including Congressman Bill Thomas, Congressman Buck McKeon and Congressman Calvin Dooley; the Mayor and the City Council of Los Angeles and the Board of Supervisors of the County of Los Angeles; the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority; and Los Angeles World Airports.