ICF Consulting Forecasts Continuing High Prices and Price Spikes in Gasoline and Crude Oil

Refinery Capacity Restraints Will Keep Transportation Fuel Prices High

WASHINGTON, May 26 -- Today ICF Consulting released a report cautioning industry and consumers to prepare for high crude oil and gasoline prices throughout 2004 and for the foreseeable future. The analysis titled, "Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Outlook: No End In Sight for High Prices," outlines the underlying market factors which are contributing both to recent high prices and price volatility.

Crude oil prices have increased by more than 40 percent in the last year, translating into high gasoline prices at the pump. There has been an increase of 49 cents per gallon in the nationwide average retail price for all types of gasoline, now averaging $2.06 per gallon. Zeta Rosenberg, ICF Consulting Vice President says, "In addition to high crude oil prices, we expect to see a widening gap between gasoline (and diesel) prices and the underlying crude oil prices as the United States moves into the summer driving season and the economy continues to improve. This will keep gasoline prices near or above current prices for most of 2004. Should unanticipated refinery or pipeline outages occur, we expect to see gasoline price spikes."

The main contributors to sustained high prices are increasing demand; concerns over major supply disruptions; an aging fuel transport and refinery system near capacity; and market impacts from the declining value of the dollar and from market speculators. ICF Consulting's full report is available at http://www.icfconsulting.com/fuelprices.

ICF Consulting (http://www.icfconsulting.com/) is a leading management, technology, and policy consulting firm. Drawing upon extensive industry knowledge, distinguished professionals, and innovative analytics, the firm develops solutions to complex energy, environment, emergency management, homeland security, community development, and transportation issues. ICF Consulting's approach to these issues is strengthened by its expertise in information technology, organizational improvement, program management, and communications. Since 1969, ICF Consulting has been serving major corporations, government at all levels, and multinational institutions. More than 1,000 employees serve these clients in the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Africa.