Rising Fuel Prices and Enhanced Technologies Encourage Better Market Prospects for Clean Diesels
PALO ALTO, Calif., Dec. 7, 2005 -- Diesel engines have a checkered history in light North American vehicles. Today, they are largely relegated to heavier full-size light trucks, such as DOT class 2 and 3 pickups. They have always enjoyed good fuel economy (both in the city and on the highway), high torque delivery, and long durability, compared to gasoline engines. However, higher purchase costs, excessive noise levels, heavy weight, and unfavorable exhaust emissions have detracted from their wide acceptance over the years.
With the help of advanced technologies and new exhaust emissions, the diesel outlook is improving. Frost & Sullivan expects clean diesels to capture up to 10 percent of North American light vehicle powertrain sales by 2015, around 3 to 4 times the penetration of 2004.
New analysis from Frost & Sullivan (http://www.transportation.frost.com/ ), Strategic Analysis of North American Automotive Light Diesel Technologies, reveals that light automotive diesel powertrains captured unit sales of around 500,000 in model year 2004, and are estimated to reach 2 million units by model year 2015.
If you are interested in a virtual brochure, which provides manufacturers, end users, and other industry participants an overview of the latest analysis of the Strategic Analysis of North American Automotive Light Diesel Technologies, then send an e-mail to Tolu Babalola - Corporate Communications at tolu.babalola@frost.com with the following information: full name, company name, title, telephone number, e-mail address, city, state, and country. The brochure will be e-mailed to you upon receipt of this information.
"A key challenge for the automotive light diesel engine industry is to survive the tightening emissions regulatory requirements with affordable products that continue to last well and deliver the expected good fuel economy," notes Frost & Sullivan Senior Consultant, Larry Rinek.
A favorable outcome for diesels is not yet a done deal. By 2009, U.S. automotive diesels (under EPA tier 2, bin 5) are required to have tailpipe emissions just as clean as spark-ignited gasoline engines. That is almost zero emissions levels for both types of engines. That scenario requires near- heroic efforts for diesel engine designers involving elaborate and costly aftertreatments, and potential use of alternative lower-temperature combustion technologies. The fundamental diesel emissions problem is high generation of smog-forming NOx, plus a heavy dose of particulate matter (such as fine carbon soot).
There is a risk that conventional-combustion diesel engines will become obsolete, or essentially legislated out of existence for highway vehicle use. Clean automotive diesels are threatened by ever-tightening U.S. EPA exhaust emissions regulations, the toughest on earth. Companies participating in this market need to help find a way for diesel engines to survive and offer practical technology solutions.
"Some Tier 1 suppliers of key diesel engine systems, such as electronically controlled Direct Injection (DI) fuel systems -- the most expensive purchased portion of diesel engines today, have much at stake in providing emissions-compliant solutions that will enable survival of these engines, and continued DI system sales worth billions of dollars per year," explains Rinek
The Tier 1 system suppliers are working hard to help diesel engine builders minimize engine-out emissions (with various DI techniques, such as higher common-rail injection pressures and more injection events per cycle, combustion chamber/piston bowl modifications, and exhaust gas recirculation [EGR] technology), as well as reduced tailpipe-out emissions via effective exhaust aftertreatments downstream of the engine. The above strategies, plus alternative combustion schemes could help the automotive diesel industry to survive and prosper in North America.
Strategic Analysis of North American Automotive Light Diesel Technologies, a part of the Automotive Advanced Technologies subscription, provides an overview and outlook for light diesel technologies. This study has been segmented into analysis of such technology domains as valvetrains, boosting, electronic engine management, fuel and combustion systems, external emissions controls, and other diesel technologies. Research includes detailed technology opportunities and industry trends that have been evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants. Interviews are available to the press.
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