J.D. Power and Associates Reports: September Retail Sales Drop as Effects of Expected Post-CARS Payback Are Compounded By Additional Market Factors
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WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., Sept. 24 -- September new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 590,000 units, which represent a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 7.5 million units, according to J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 franchisees across the United States.
"Low inventories and reduced incentives, combined with the effects of CARS pull-ahead sales, spell tough conditions for September," said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates. "September's retail SAAR is projected to be the lowest selling rate in 2009. However, improving consumer confidence and credit conditions in the months ahead are likely to help to rebuild the retail industry."
Fleet volume remains low, and September fleet sales are expected to decline by nearly 50 percent, compared with one year ago. As a result, September total light-vehicle sales are projected to come in at 710,000 units, down 29 percent from September 2008. The September SAAR for total light-vehicle sales is projected to decline to 9.2 million units, compared with 13.8 million units in August.
J.D. Power and Associates U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons--September 2009
September 2009(1) August 2009 September 2008
------------------------- --------------- --------------
New-vehicle 590,000 units 1,142,876 units 740,883
retail sales units
(24% lower than
September 2008)(2)
------------- ------------------------- --------------- --------------
Total vehicle 710,000 units 1,259,708 units 962,097
sales units
(29% lower than September
2008)
------------- ------------------------- --------------- --------------
Retail SAAR 7.5 million units 11.8 million 8.8 million
units units
----------- ------------------------- --------------- --------------
Total SAAR 9.2 million units 13.8 million 12.5 million
units units
---------- ------------------------- --------------- --------------
(1)Figures cited for September 2009 are forecasted numbers based on the
first 16 selling days of the month.
(2)The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days
(25 days vs. 24 days one year ago).
The retail segment mix has returned to pre-CARS program levels, with the share of compact cars decreasing to 19 percent in September from 28 percent in August. Premium vehicles and large pickups have also returned to market share levels consistent with the 2009 average prior to the CARS program.
"After the anomaly created by the CARS program, September's balanced segment mix indicates a return to more natural consumer behavior," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. "This stability is fundamental to a market recovery and a return to a healthy industry. However, consumers are hesitant and the automotive industry remains fragile, and the risk of a secondary decline remains."
J.D. Power and Associates is maintaining its forecast for 2009 at 10.3 million units for total sales, with retail sales projected to come in at 8.6 million units. The 2010 forecast remains at 11.5 million units for total sales and 9.5 million units for retail sales.
About J.D. Power and Associates
Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power and Associates is a global marketing information services company operating in key business sectors including market research, forecasting, performance improvement, Web intelligence and customer satisfaction. The company's quality and satisfaction measurements are based on responses from millions of consumers annually. For more information on car reviews and ratings, car insurance, health insurance, cell phone ratings, and more, please visit JDPower.com. J.D. Power and Associates is a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies.
About The McGraw-Hill Companies
Founded in 1888, The McGraw-Hill Companies is a leading global information services provider meeting worldwide needs in the financial services, education and business information markets through leading brands such as Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill Education, BusinessWeek and J.D. Power and Associates. The Corporation has more than 280 offices in 40 countries. Sales in 2008 were $6.4 billion. Additional information is available at http://www.mcgraw-hill.com/.
