Share of New-Vehicle Leases to Reach All-Time High

MCLEAN, VA -- Dec. 21, 2015: In their final white paper of the year, NADA Used Car Guide analysts provide a recap and forecast of the peak- and valley-laden journey of the U.S. new-vehicle lease market. Among the report's many findings, it forecasts the share of leased new-vehicles will reach an all-time high if the final quarter of the year is able to meet or exceed the 27.8 percent lease rate of 2015's first three quarters.

"The last time we saw the lease share of retail new-car deliveries come close to this level was back in 1997 when the record was set at 27.4 percent," said Jonathan Banks, executive analyst at NADA Used Car Guide.

Larry Dixon, senior analyst at NADA Used Car Guide added, "The U.S. economy has come a long way in the past six years and it clearly shows in the leasing market. For example, in 2009 the Great Recession saw the number of new-vehicle leases drop to just 13.5 percent of all new-vehicle deliveries. Each of the first three quarters of this year were more than double that figure."

As the number of new-vehicle sales increased last year, so did the number of leased vehicles. According to the white paper, lease originations reached an all-time high of 3.48 million in 2014, surpassing the previous high set in 1999. For 2015, however, the market appears to be on even more of a tear since the first three quarters of the year have already written 2.95 million new-vehicle leases.

Banks said, "As long as that trend continues, the final quarter of the year will also result in yet another record for lease originations."

The white paper additionally includes a forecast of lease maturities through 2017 based on J.D. Power Power Information Network® (PIN) data. Charts in the paper convey that in 2015, lease maturities will increase 4 percent (95,000 vehicles) over 2014, totaling 2.3 million for the year. In 2016, there will be a 33 percent (about 800,000 vehicles) lease maturity increase, which will push annual totals to 3.1 million. The numbers keep climbing in 2017 with an additional 285,000 lease maturities resulting in a total of 3.4 million maturities for the year.