2023 USA Auto Sales By Brands
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U.S. New Auto Sales Expected to Finish 2023 Up More Than 11% Year Over Year, says cox, General Motors (CHEVROLET, CADILLAC, BUICK, GMC, HUMMER,) Retains Top Spot, Hyundai Motor Group (KIA, HYUNDAI) Jumps Past Stellantis (JEEP, CHRYSLER, DODGE, FIAT, Alfa Romeo, OTHERS)
- Cox Automotive forecasts full-year 2023 U.S. auto sales to finish near 15.5 million units, up from 13.9 million in 2022 and down from the market peak of 17.5 million in 2016.
- Cox Automotive forecasts annual vehicle sales pace in December to be near 15.1 million, up 1.6 million from last December's 13.5 million pace but down from November's 15.3 million level.
- December's sales volume is expected to rise 6.2% from one year ago and reach 1.36 million units. Volume this month will increase by 10.4% from November, which had two less selling days.
ATLANTA, Dec. 27, 2023 -- December new-vehicle sales, announced next week, are expected to show gains over last year's product-constrained market. According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, sales volume this month is expected to rise 6.2% over December 2022. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to finish near 15.1 million in December. This SAAR is 1.6 million higher compared to last year's pace. However, it reflects a slight decline from last month's 15.3 million level and matches the lowest SAAR of the year, which was recorded in May.
According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "December is generally a strong month for new-vehicle sales as holiday shoppers look for year-end deals, and this year will be no exception. With supply much higher now and incentives higher as well, this December is expected to finish significantly better than last year. But high vehicle prices and high interest rates remain the industry's Grinch right now, and that trend will continue into next year."
2023: A Surprisingly Strong Sales Year
New-vehicle sales have been stronger and more consistent than expected throughout 2023. The new-vehicle market has been supported by growing deliveries, improving supply levels and higher incentives. Full-year 2023 U.S. auto sales, based on vehicle counts by Kelley Blue Book, are forecast to finish near 15.5 million units, an increase of 11.6% from 13.9 million in 2022 and ahead of Cox Automotive's forecast from one year ago.
Large year-over-year gains in 2023 have been delivered by Honda, Nissan, General Motors and Tesla. The Hyundai Motor Group, with Genesis, Hyundai, and Kia brands, had a strong year in the U.S. market, growing sales by more than 12% and passing Stellantis – maker of Jeep, Ram, Dodge, Chrysler and other brands – to take the fourth spot in overall U.S. sales, behind Ford. Of all major automakers, Stellantis is the only one expected to post lower year-over-year sales, as the company pursues a strategy of lower volume and higher revenue per sales.
Higher New-Vehicle Inventory Levels and Strong Fleet Activity Support Improved Sales Pace
New-vehicle inventory volume was 2.56 million at the start of December, higher by more than 900,000 units from one year ago. Meanwhile, days' supply had climbed to 71, up from 60 at the start of November and more than 17 days higher than December 2022. At the beginning of December, new-vehicle days' supply is closer to the pre-pandemic norm than in the last several years.
Fleet sales are expected to rise in December after experiencing two months of pull-back in commercial and rental vehicle sales. The lower fleet volume was particularly affected by big drops in fleet sales from the Detroit Three due to the UAW strike.
Chesbrough notes: "With the strike now in the rearview mirror, December is expected to show a return to stronger fleet activity, and these sales could have a big impact on the month's final tally."
December 2023 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
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Sales Forecast1 |
Market Share |
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||||||
|
Segment |
Dec-23 |
Dec-22 |
Nov-23 |
YOY% |
MOM% |
Dec-23 |
Nov-23 |
MOM |
|
|
Mid-Size Car |
80,000 |
75,179 |
66,271 |
6.4 % |
20.7 % |
5.9 % |
5.4 % |
0.5 % |
|
|
Compact Car |
85,000 |
68,701 |
77,552 |
23.7 % |
9.6 % |
6.2 % |
6.3 % |
0.0 % |
|
|
Compact SUV/Crossover |
230,000 |
187,978 |
208,670 |
22.4 % |
10.2 % |
16.8 % |
16.9 % |
0.0 % |
|
|
Full-Size Pickup Truck |
190,000 |
208,849 |
171,998 |
-9.0 % |
10.5 % |
13.9 % |
13.9 % |
0.0 % |
|
|
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover |
215,000 |
222,595 |
191,579 |
-3.4 % |
12.2 % |
15.8 % |
15.5 % |
0.3 % |
|
|
Grand Total2 |
1,365,000 |
1,285,553 |
1,236,680 |
6.2 % |
10.4 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
|
2 Total includes segments not shown |
Full-Year 2022 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast Highlights
- New-vehicle sales are forecast to increase 11.6% in 2023, reaching 15.5 million units.
- New auto sales in Q4 will be down 4.2% compared to Q4 2022.
- GM retains the sales title over Toyota in 2023 while Hyundai Motor Group jumps past Stellantis; Honda sees the largest year-over-year sales increase of the major manufacturers.
Full-Year 2023 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
|
OEM |
Q4 2023 |
vs Q4 2022 |
CY 2023 |
vs CY 2022 |
Share |
Share |
Difference |
|
GM |
609,437 |
-8.9 % |
2,567,251 |
13.70 % |
16.3 % |
16.6 % |
0.3 % |
|
Toyota |
604,642 |
2.4 % |
2,233,458 |
5.90 % |
15.2 % |
14.4 % |
-0.8 % |
|
Ford |
457,816 |
-7.9 % |
1,954,690 |
5.60 % |
13.3 % |
12.6 % |
-0.7 % |
|
Hyundai Motors |
405,760 |
-5.7 % |
1,656,242 |
12.30 % |
10.6 % |
10.7 % |
0.1 % |
|
Stellantis |
331,266 |
-13.0 % |
1,514,804 |
-2.10 % |
11.1 % |
9.8 % |
-1.4 % |
|
Honda |
331,776 |
-2.2 % |
1,302,451 |
32.40 % |
7.1 % |
8.4 % |
1.3 % |
|
Nissan Mitsu |
220,932 |
-7.6 % |
985,717 |
20.90 % |
5.9 % |
6.4 % |
0.5 % |
|
Tesla |
156,746 |
0.1 % |
650,259 |
24.50 % |
3.8 % |
4.2 % |
0.4 % |
|
VW |
177,561 |
6.1 % |
634,307 |
13.70 % |
4.0 % |
4.1 % |
0.1 % |
|
Subaru |
165,683 |
1.6 % |
632,903 |
13.70 % |
4.0 % |
4.1 % |
0.1 % |
|
BMW |
102,994 |
12.1 % |
380,126 |
5.00 % |
2.6 % |
2.5 % |
-0.2 % |
|
Mazda |
80,379 |
-9.5 % |
352,996 |
19.70 % |
2.1 % |
2.3 % |
0.2 % |
|
Daimler |
90,998 |
1.1 % |
352,729 |
0.50 % |
2.5 % |
2.3 % |
-0.3 % |
|
Geely (Volvo) |
40,008 |
10.8 % |
141,037 |
26.50 % |
0.8 % |
0.9 % |
0.1 % |
|
Tata (JLR) |
19,386 |
-7.9 % |
78,149 |
14.00 % |
0.5 % |
0.5 % |
0.0 % |
|
Rivian |
14,599 |
-6.2 % |
50,749 |
149.60 % |
0.1 % |
0.3 % |
0.2 % |
|
Lucid |
1,497 |
2.8 % |
5,764 |
117.00 % |
0.0 % |
0.0 % |
0.0 % |
|
NATION |
3,814,066 |
-4.2 % |
15,499,224 |
11.60 % |
100.0 % |
100.0 % |
0.0 % |
All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate. There were 27 selling days in both December 2023 and December 2022, while there were 25 selling days in November 2023.
Forecast: 2024
As the auto market drives into 2024, the Cox Automotive Economic and Industry Insights team anticipates weak economic growth, higher new-vehicle inventories, and an end to the seller's market. Overall, the team expects 2024 to be the best year for car buyers since the pandemic. Last week, Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke shared his team's expectations for the U.S. automotive market in the year ahead. Forecast: 2024 outlines five themes expected to shape the automotive industry in the coming year.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders and fleet owners. The company has 25,000+ employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™ and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
SOURCE Cox Automotive
Largely a performance side of Fiat in the U.S., this brand’s fate hinges upon what Stellantis plans to do with Fiat as mentioned below.
2. Alfa Romeo
Alfa is a niche player in North America and may not stay beyond the next few years. If Stellantis decides to keep Alfa Romeo, its role may be limited to a few key markets and little more.
3. Chrysler
What can be said about the Chrysler brand which will turn 100 in 2025? There is a strong chance the brand won’t survive as it’s down to two models – the 300 and Pacifica. The 300 is aged and isn’t likely to survive. The Pacifica minivan as a lasting nameplate is in decent shape, so this model could be moved to another brand and sold there.
4. Citroen
Essentially unknown to the U.S., the Citroen brand isn’t likely to ever return. A Citroen model rebranded as a Chrysler or a Dodge is always a possibility.
5. Dodge
With the aged Charger and Challenger cars as well as the Durango SUV in need of updates, the Dodge brand doesn’t have much left to it, especially with the Journey and Grand Caravan gone. Like Chrysler, Dodge may be expendable unless new product is ported from Europe and rebadged in North America.
6. DS
Peugeot’s premium brand is a niche player and won’t head west anytime soon. A rebadged product might deliver fresh life into Dodge or Chrysler, but that’s about it.
7. Fiat
Ever since its return to the U.S. market a decade ago, Fiat hasn’t found its legs. The size of its cars is one issue, the limited product line is another reason. We think apart from Mexico and southward, the Fiat brand will disappear from the American and Canadian markets within a year or two.
8. Jeep
It is Jeep that made Stellantis a possibility. For without this fast-growing and now global brand, the merger might not have happened. We think Jeep will become the number one profit driver and growth possibility for Stellantis going forward as fresh products arrive and new markets are breached.
9. Lancia
The Lancia brand never made its way to North America and isn’t likely to do so. In fact, its future under the new regime is tenuous at best. We think along with Dodge and Chrysler, Lancia is also vulnerable and may not survive.
10. Maserati
Small sales have kept Maserati alive in North America. We believe the brand has much life left and as a profitable marque, it’ll still have its place here.
11. Opel
We’re not likely to find Opel-badged vehicles in North America, although the possibility of one or more products arriving stateside and sold as Chrysler or Dodge vehicles is possible. After all, since separating from GM, Opel has wound down its supply relationship to Buick’s Regal line. Perhaps one or more products will be relabeled for the U.S. market. That is, if the company decides to bring these models stateside.
12. Peugeot
The Peugeot brand was supposed to return to the U.S. market by 2023/2025. Now that the company is part of the greater Stellantis entity, its return may be in doubt. Instead of Peugeot-badged models returning, we may find select vehicles rebadged and sold under the Dodge and Chrysler labels.
It is simply more cost-effective for Stellantis to work through the system already in place than to spend billions of dollars on reintroducing a brand that may only find limited success in a competitive market.
Update: we now know Peugeot will not return to the U.S. market: See – What’s the Future for Chrysler and Dodge Under Stellantis?
13. Ram
The 1500 series is the driving force for Ram along with its heavy-duty 2500/3500 variants. The Ram brand is strong and will likely receive a midsize pickup truck next year along the lines of the Jeep Gladiator.
The rest of its vehicles include various vans – we think these models will continue, although the product basis may come from some other brand besides Fiat.
14. Vauxhall (see Opel)
Vauxhall continues to exist as a rebadged brand of Opel in some markets, particularly in the U.K. It is of no use beyond these markets and might simply disappear altogether.
