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The Dawn of The 21st Century To Yield 'Most Exciting Period in Automotive History'

17 December 1997

The Dawn of The 21st Century To Yield 'Most Exciting Period in Automotive History'

          Technological, Marketing Experts Foresee Dramatic Changes

    WASHINGTON, Dec. 17 -- With the second century of the
automotive industry still in its infancy, technical experts and dealers alike
see dramatic changes ahead.  Styling, performance and technological advances
on everyone's minds, with industry insiders predicting that the future will
move from drawing board to showroom faster than most consumers realize.
    For Robert Riley, author of Alternative Cars in the 21st Century, the
"Race to the Millennium" highlighted by the Washington Auto Show is "the most
exciting period in the automotive industry.  The industry is alive with ideas,
involving both the academic and scientific communities," said Riley.  "There's
nothing like it and I don't think the man on the street is aware of the work
being done."
    Riley identified four key industry trends that will be apparent to most
consumers within the first decade of the 21st century.  By 2010, car buyers
may see:

    -- A styling trend toward the one-box design -- vehicles without a
prominent or separate front-end.  While traditional sedans use a three-box
design, with distinctive front, middle and back sections, the one-box design
is more typical of a van configuration.

    -- Major changes in power trains.  "My sense is that between now and
2010, we'll see a proliferation of new automobile power systems," said Riley.
"Battery-powered vehicles are really here now and hybrid vehicles are just
starting to show up."  Cars powered by fuel-cells as opposed to combustion
could appear by 2010, predicts Riley, although there are still hurdles to
cross regarding cost and size.

    -- Completely new types of vehicles.  "We are now re-defining the
automobile and creating a new type of transportation product."  Riley
characterizes current progress as the "toe in the water" stage, but predicts
that we will soon see a "totally different type of vehicle from major car
manufacturers."  Necessary vehicle size, energy pressures, environmental
concerns and the growing number of cars on the road will all shape the vehicle
of the 21st Century.

    -- New technology in collision avoidance.  Riley envisions that as the
century progresses so will the use of technology to avoid crashes, reflecting
a shift toward collision avoidance rather than collision survival.  "There is
technology available whereby an electronic sensor could signal an impending
collision," explained Riley.  If liability issues were not so complex, he
said, that technology "could be in cars next year."
    Video mechanisms that can automatically steer cars by reading lane
markings are also being tested, said Riley.  Intelligent cruise control that
automatically adjusts when the driver is following too close and visibility
systems that can see through fog and rain are other examples of collision
avoidance technology.  Finally, intelligent air bags with pre-event sensing
and variable deployment rates based on the occupant's weight and position are
also under development.
    Many of Riley's predictions are echoed by member dealers from the
Washington Area New Automobile Dealers Association (WANADA), with many noting
environmental concerns.  "We expect to see more environmental responsibility
and better performance with less pollution," anticipates Steve Pieper,
President of Heishman's in Arlington, Virginia.  "In Europe, regulations are
in effect to govern environmental management in production facilities.  I see
this spreading worldwide, to not only have cleaner cars, but have cleaner
plants producing cleaner cars."
    The continuing power of the consumer is also noted.  "In the early decades
of our industry, style, design and functionality of cars were largely
determined by the manufacturer and forced upon the consumer.  Today and
certainly for the foreseeable future, there is an increasingly knowledgeable
and demanding customer base.  Customers know what they want in a new vehicle
and will search until they find it," said Jonathan Cherner, Cherner Automotive
Group.  "To meet this demand in the marketplace, manufacturers are racing to
be more innovative than their competitors and capture the imagination of the
customer."
    And how will the consumer react, both to the changes made possible by
technology and to those mandated by environmental issues?  "I believe the
customer will be satisfied with the new choices," said Riley.  "The customer
won't be asked to sacrifice."
    Riley recognizes that the re-definition of the automobile will mean a
vastly different machine will rest in our driveways in the decades to come,
but believes that the American consumer is becoming more aware of the need for
change in transportation options.  "The explosion of vehicles, more so in
other parts of the world such as Asia, is frankly bad for the planet.  The
demand on the environment and the demand for petroleum will explode over the
next 10 to 20 years."
    The good news, said Riley, is that "the transportation industry is doing
much of what needs to be done.  We're looking at a technological revolution
within the next 10 to 20 years."
    "In another 15 years," said the author, "the automobile will be a fairly
benign element with regard to the environment."

SOURCE  Washington Area New Automobile Dealers Association