S & P's Study Finds 42-Volt Automotive Systems Will Enable Fuel Economy Improvements of 10% and More
27 July 2000
Standard & Poor's Study Finds 42-Volt Automotive Systems Will Enable Fuel Economy Improvements of 10% and More
LEXINGTON, Mass. - Automakers will adopt 42-volt electrical systems faster than previously thought because the switch from 14-volt to 42-volt systems will produce substantial savings in fuel cost and a reduction in emissions, according to a groundbreaking study released today by Standard & Poor's.The 100-page study conducted worldwide among vehicle manufacturers and suppliers says the more powerful 42-volt systems would pay for themselves by enabling fuel consumption savings of 10% or more with no capital investment.
The study also said the market for the systems, which would also improve overall passenger comfort and safety, will be substantial - 25% to 35% of the light vehicles produced in North America, Europe and Japan will have 42-volt systems by 2010.
"With a stronger OPEC pushing oil prices higher, and a global awareness of the need to reduce CO2 emissions, the fuel economy technologies enabled by 42-volt electrical systems suggest that this is a technology that can benefit everyone," said Philip Gott, Principal of Standard & Poor's DRI.
Those are just some of the key findings from the 100-page study, 42 Volts: Implications, Challenges, Opportunities, which assesses the technical and business implications associated with a move from 14 to 42 volts and offers the first detailed global production and demand forecast for 42-volt vehicles. (14 volts is the current standard, i.e., the amount of voltage from the alternator needed to keep a 12-volt battery charged, while 42 volts would charge a 36-volt battery)
Automotive electrical system voltages higher than the present-day standard have been actively studied by the industry since the 1980s. Researchers recognized that the total on-board power demand would eventually exceed the capabilities of 14-volt electrical generators. It became internationally accepted that 42 volts would be the most appropriate for conventional passenger cars and light trucks.
To be cost effective, however, higher-voltage systems and components would have to be adopted in high volumes quickly, because it was believed that the market would not pay the price for the higher-voltage components used in only a few applications. Until recently, many believed that high volumes of higher-voltage systems would be unlikely since the loads that justified them were expected only in luxury cars.
But Standard & Poor's expects that 42 volts will become a self-supporting phenomenon. The benefits it provides will become prerequisites to satisfying market demand for improved comfort and convenience and regulatory requirements for reduced emissions and fuel consumption.
While Renault SA recently announced it will rollout a model with a combination of 14- and 42-volt power, in 2004, with a complete 42-volt system not expected until 2007, Standard & Poor's predicts that 42 volts will be first applied within the next two years to vehicles and markets where the benefits it enables will be of greatest value to the vehicle owner.
Raising the level of comfort and convenience the automotive industry can offer its customers will force investment in the new technologies required - particularly motors, heating devices, DC/DC converters, and electronic devices - to satisfy the demand for a new level of benefits, according to the report. The 42-volt systems could also permit new entrants to the automotive industry due to the potential for this significant change in technology.
Standard & Poor's believes that 42-volt systems are here to stay because they are driven by the widely shared industry aim for improved fuel consumption and emissions reductions.
Following is a production forecast chart based on the Standard & Poor's study:
Global Production of Vehicles with
42-volt Systems to Reach 13 Million
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Year Production
(Thousands)
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2002 46
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2003 155
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2004 606
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2005 871
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2006 2,823
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2007 4,497
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2008 7,010
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2009 10,402
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2010 12,891
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About Standard & Poor's DRI
Standard & Poor's DRI, of Standard & Poor's, has long been the world's most widely used provider of independent automotive forecasts and advanced quantitative and qualitative analysis on the global automotive industry. The firm draws on more than 35 automotive experts with credentials in engineering, finance, marketing, sales, product strategy, and market research and more than 100 economic forecasters and financial analysts worldwide.
