---

MIT Scientists Predict 35% MPG And 5% Vehicle Cost Increase by 2020

1 February 2001

MIT Scientists Predict 35 Percent MPG Increase And 5 Percent Vehicle Cost Increase by 2020 in Paper to be Given at SAE Congress

    WARRENDALE, Pa., Jan. 31 Automobiles in 2020 will get
35 percent better gas mileage at a 5 percent increase in cost, according to
scientists at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Energy Laboratory,
who will share their projections regarding future automotive technologies at
the SAE 2001 World Congress, March 5-8, Cobo Center, Detroit, Michigan, USA.
Key projections for 2020 vehicles, as compared to today's cars, include:

    --  Baseline gasoline passenger car improvements, which are likely to be
        driven by market pressures and tightening regulations, are
        significant: 15 percent reduction in vehicle mass, 35 percent
        reduction in fuel consumption and 5 percent increase in vehicle
        price.

    --  More advanced gasoline engine cars with improved transmissions, and
        further reductions in mass and resistances, will decrease vehicle
        mass another 8 percent and fuel consumption by another 12 percent,
        with an additional 8 percent cost to consumers.

    --  The direct hydrogen fuel cell hybrid vehicle will be the most
        efficient and lowest emitting vehicle with nearly 55 percent lower
        energy consumption than the evolving gasoline-powered vehicle, but
        with a 40 percent price increase.

    "Future Light-Duty Vehicles: Predicting Their Fuel Consumption and Carbon-
Reduction Potential", Paper # 2001-01-1081, will be presented in Room D0-04 on
Wednesday, March 7 in Cobo Center, Detroit, Michigan.

    The MIT scientists, Felix AuYeung, Professor John B. Heywood and Andreas
Schafer, also make predictions regarding gasoline hybrids, compressed natural
gas hybrids, advanced diesel engines, electric vehicles, and reformer fuel
cell vehicles, which process liquid fuels to hydrogen on board.

    The research is part of a larger fuel and vehicle technology project at
MIT, and the addition of fuel production energy requirements and CO2 emissions
is important. Direct use of natural gas relative to petroleum improves total
system CO2 emissions, while production of hydrogen from natural gas or
petroleum fuels adds a significant energy and CO2 penalty.